The El Niño Phenomenon
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The El Niño is an abnormal weather pattern caused by the warming of the Pacific Ocean. It is characterized by climatic aberrations around the world-warming in South America, torrential rains in North America, and drought in Southeast Asia and Australia. This phenomenon occurs every two to seven years.
Climatic Indicators of El Niño in the Philippines
- delayed onset of the rainy season
- early termination of the rainy season
- weak monsoon activity
- isolated heavy downpours with short duration
- weak tropical cyclone activity
- far tropical cyclone track
- less no. of tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility
- less intense tropical cyclones
- drought damage to rice and corn cost more than P700 million
- 450,000 hectares of land were affected
- among the severely hit provinces were Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog, Northern Visayas and Western Mindanao
- drought damage set back the agricultural sector by P4.1 billion
- 478,000 metric tons of corn were destroyed
- among the worst hit were South Cotabato, Isabela, Bukidnon, Maguindanao, North Cotabato and Cagayan
- dry spell between June1997-1998; effects continued to be felt through September 1998
- El Niño struck as the country was enjoying a continuous four-year growth
- damage to agriculture amounted to P8.46 billion
- 16 regions were affected
Effects of El Niño in the Philippines
- drought
- environmental effects
- degradation of soil which could lead to desert-like conditions if persistent
- effect on water quality like salt water intrusion
- high forest/grass/bush fire risk
- domestic water supply shortages
- social effects
- disruption of normal human activities
- migration to urban communities
- health problems
- economic effects
- unemployment
- food shortages
- significant reduction in the productivity and subsequent revenue of various industries
| El Niño-related effects on a person's health | Precautions |
| diseases related to water scarcity or shortage such as diarrhea and skin diseases | conserve water; protect water sources from contamination |
| risk of paralytic shellfish poisoning (seafood may be contaminated by red tide blooms) | watch out for shellfish ban updates |
| disorders associated with high temperatures: heat cramps, heat exhaustion, exertional heat injury and heat stroke | drink more fluids, wear light clothing, avoid strenuous physical activity |
Since January, 2.5 million tonnes of rice and corn have been lost in the northern regions. Drought is affecting the rest of the country with power cuts and water rationing, including in the capital. Some people turn to shamans. The bishop of Urdeneta urges people to have faith in Providence, and to do all they can to counter the effects of climate change.
Manila (AsiaNews) – An El Niño-induced drought continues to cause havoc in the northern Philippines. About 2.5 million metric tonnes of rice and corn were lost since the start of the year. Some 800,000 hectares of rice and cornfields have already been affected by the problem. Agriculture has already lost an estimated US$ 33 million, which could go as high as US$ 400 million if this weather pattern continues until July. Drought is also affecting the rest of the country. Regular power cuts are affecting industry and water rationing is creating hardships for the population.
“It is such a difficult situation because we have just survived the typhoons in October that destroyed 1.5 million metric tons of rice and countless basic infrastructures,” Joel Rudinas, an undersecretary at the Department of Agriculture, said Friday. “We are bracing for the worst.”
To deal with the situation, President Arroyo signed an order, asking utility companies to increase water and power supplies to the farming and fishing communities in 14 of the country’s 80 provinces, especially in the north.
Despite pledges of help, most people are resigned. “My family and I are praying to God for rain,” said Ramon Cruz from Urdaneta (North Luzon), one of the most affected promises, but “we are losing hope that crops can be saved.”
In the provinces of North Luzon, the lack of rain has pushed water level so low that the Binga and Magat dams, which provide power to a large area in northern Philippines, could soon be shut down.
“We may have to temporarily stop operation if the water level does not increase," said Mike Hosillos, spokesman for power-generating firm SN Aboitiz Power.
Hosillos, who is also SN Aboitiz Power vice-president for corporate services, said the company is willing to try anything to get water levels to increase, including performing rituals such as the traditional rain dance. “We have always respected the local traditions of the people here; we are one with the community," he said.
The Catholic Church has raised funds at the parish level to help the most affected farmers. With its presence, it has tried to keep up people’s spirits. “We must have trust in Providence,” said Mgr Jacinto Jose Aagcaoili, bishop of Urdaneta, and “do all we can to face the effects of El Niño.
British researchers at the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research had already predicted the return of El Niño back in August.
This cyclical climate pattern occurs every two to seven years. It is characterised by increases in temperatures of the usually cold waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean of the order of plus .5 Cº- 1.5 Cº. Changes in temperature modify normal ocean patterns, causing droughts in Asia and Africa, and heavy rains in South America.
In 1997 and 1998, global warming and El Niño caused a major drought in South-East Asia. The resulting fires destroyed thousands of hectares of forests, with billions of dollars in losses in agriculture.
(The Warm Phase)
El Niño is a large scale oceanographic / meteorological phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with extreme climatic variability; i.e., devastating rains, winds, drought, etc. It is the migration, from time to time, of warm surface waters from the western equatorial Pacific Basin to the eastern equatorial Pacific region, along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. This condition can prevail for more than a year, adversely affecting economies in both local and global scales.
El Niño translates from Spanish as the "Boy Child" or the "Little One". It used to be considered a local event along the coasts Peru and Ecuador. The term was traditionally used by the Peruvian anchovy fishermen to describe the appearance of a warm ocean current flowing along the south American coast around Christmas time.
Under normal conditions, the prevailing southeasterly trade winds produce a surface current flowing toward the equator along the western South American coast. The waters leaving the coast are replace by colder waters from below (upwelling), which is rich in phytoplankton, the food source of anchovy.
The warm current (El Niño) temporarily displaces nutrient-rich upwelling cold water resulting in the heavy harvest of anchovies. The abundant catch, however, is shortlived. What follows is a sharp decline in the fish population , resulting in a lesser catch. At times, warming is exceptionally strong and ruins the anchovy harvest.
- It occurs in the Pacific basin every 2 to 9 years;
- It usually starts during the Northern winter (December to February);
- Once established, it lasts until the first half of the following year,
although at times, it stays longer;
- It exhibits phase-locking in annual cycles (El Niño and rainfall
- fluctuations associated with it tend to recur at the same time of the
year; and
- It usually has a biennial cycle (El Niño events will often be preceded
and/or followed by La Niña).
Abnormalities such as:
- delayed onset of the rainy season
- early termination of the rainy season
- weak monsoon activity
*isolated heavy downpours with short duration
- weak tropical cyclone activity
*far tropical cyclone track
*less no. of tropical cyclones entering the PAR
*less intense tropical cyclones
In the Philippines, drought events are associated with the occurrence of El Niño episodes. Second and third order impacts of El Niño related drought events in the Philippines include:
(a) environmental (degradation of soil which could lead to desert-like conditions if persistent, effect on water quality like salt water intrusion, high forest/grass/bus fire risk, domestic water supply shortages, etc.);
(b) social (disruption of normal human activities, migration to urban communities, human and health problems, etc.); and
(c) economic (unemployment, food shortages, significant reduction in the productivity and subsequent revenue of various industries, hydro-electric power generation, etc.).
La Niña
(The Cold Phase)
La Niña develops over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and is characterized by unusually cold surface temperatures of the ocean. La Niña is associated with extreme climatic variability such as devastating rains, winds, drought, etc.
This condition can prevail for two to three seasons (six to nine months) thus affecting the economy on both the local and global scales. The term La Niña (the Little Girl) was used by many scientists and meteorologists to differentiate it from El Niño. It is sometimes called El Viejo (Old Man), Anti-El Niño, or simply "cold event" or "cold episode".
La Niña events are also linked to a change in atmospheric pressure known as the Southern Oscillation (SO). This is characterized by a seesaw (positive) in the atmospheric pressure between the western and central regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with one center of action located in the vicinity of Indonesia and the other center located over the central Pacific Ocean. The index that measures the magnitude of the SO is known as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and it is obtained by calculating the difference in atmospheric surface pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The Southern Oscillation results from pressure variations which cause changes in the wind circulation, also known as the Walker circulation. In normal conditions, the prevailing wind comes from the southeast to east. During La Niña, stronger than normal easterly winds occur throughout much of tropical Pacific. These stronger winds push greater amounts of warm surface waters far into the western tropical Pacific. Below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over eastern tropical Pacific and simultaneously above normal or positive anomaly SOI indicate a global-scale climate variation defined as the La Niña phenomenon.
La Niña is not a new phenomenon. Evidence suggest that La Niña events have existed for thousands of years in the past. However, it is only in the last decade that a satisfactory understanding of how they form and are maintained has been gained. Some of the La Niña events on record are 1955-56, 1964-65, 1970-71, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-1989 and 1995-1996.
La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean can now be detected by many methods, including satellites, moored buoys, drifting buoys, sea level analysis and expendable bathythermographs. This research observing system is now evolving into an operational climate observing system. Large computer models of the global ocean and atmosphere use data from this observing system as input to predict/monitor La Niña, as well as El Niño. Other global models are used for research to further understand the phenomenon.
La Niña events share many general characteristics although every one is somewhat different in magnitude, duration and resulting global climatic impacts. Magnitude can be determined in different ways, such as variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Another measure of the magnitude is the sea surface temperature anomaly (difference between the observed and average values) which could either be positive (hotter than normal) or negative (cooler than normal) over specific region of the Pacific ocean, particularly in central and eastern regions.
Impacts of La Niña on Philippine climate include anomalies in rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone activities. During La Niña conditions, major parts of the country experience near normal to above normal rainfall conditions particularly over the eastern sections of the country. La Niña conditions also favor tropical cyclone formation over the western Pacific which tend to increase the number of tropical cyclones.
La Nina's effects have begun in Philippines
December 1998
U.S. Water News OnlineMANILA, Philippines (AP) -- Two intense typhoons that struck the Philippines are an indication that the ``La Nina'' weather phenomenon has begun affecting the country, the weather bureau said. ``It is here,'' said Ernesto Verceles, a weather specialist at the Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.
``We should be ready for the worst,'' he said. ``The two previous storms were indications of things to come.'' Meanwhile, the death toll rose to 189 for Typhoon Babs, which hit the Philippines earlier. At least 74 died in Typhoon Zeb.
Last year, the Philippines suffered from a long drought attributed to the El Nino weather phenomenon, a result of higher temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina, attributed to an abnormal cooling of the sea surface, is expected to cause heavy rains for the rest of this year. The weather bureau expects that La Nina will intensify the effects of at least five more tropical storms expected to strike the country in coming months. Provinces on the east side of Luzon, the Philippines' main island, will feel the brunt of the storms, Verceles said.
``Storms from the Pacific will hit the area with force before they weaken after hitting the mountain ranges on their way west toward the South China Sea,'' he said. The weather bureau is preparing an advisory on La Nina's effects that will be issued to prepare residents living near rivers and along the coast, he said.
About 152 of the deaths last week from Typhoon Babs were recorded in the Bicol region on the eastern coast, where the storm came ashore. Emilia Tadeo, an official at the Office of Civil Defense, said rescue workers are still finding bodies under landslides in Catanduanes island in Bicol. At least 53 people are still missing from the storm, she said.
Sources: PAGASA, DOH, Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development; National Disaster Coordinating Council, Philippines Country Case Study: Impacts and Responses to the 1997-98 El Niño Event
reference:
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/52900/The-El-Niño-Phenomenon
http://www.asianews.it/news-en/As-El-Ni%C3%B1o-causes-droughts-and-power-cuts,-people-turn-to-shamans-and-prayers-17712.html
http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/enso.htm
http://www.uswaternews.com/archives/arcglobal/8lanin12.html
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